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Issue published August 9 2010 20 pages In this issue The National Scene DEFLATED PRESIDENT MUST PUT HOPE IN GROWTH A preliminary assessment of the Sarkozy Presidency, which only recently reached mid term, could point to two principal achievements, a new seminal the reform of the pension system and an economic policy which has allowed France to cope comparatively well with the international recession. Pension reform and economic crisis management are, however, also among the principal reasons why President Sarkozy and his allies have suffered electorally and strategically and now face the real risk of defeat at the Presidential and Parliamentary elections of 2012 – as well as the risk of loss of Senate control next year. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Funding questions beset long-term environment plans Autumn vote on pensions Government willing to snub allies on local reform Majority MPs rebuff Government on small businesses Union rules Veiled defeat ? Companies and Sectors Daimler alliance gives Renault small boost End of a Monde G3 threat to Free plans Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published March 24 2010 20 pages In this issue The National Scene DEFEAT DEMANDS STRATEGY CHANGE The outcome of the March elections demonstrated the failure of the strategy that President Sarkozy pursued since his 2007 election to bolster his power and prepare for the Presidential and Parliamentary elections of 2012. The present majority must work out a new strategy, starting from a weakened base. Its best chance of recovery may depend on future mistakes by the Socialists and their allies. The March elections were local in nature; they concerned the Regional governments, yet constituted a national political test for both majority and opposition. They were a way of gauging voters’ confidence in UMP, the President’s party, and in the principal opposition, the Socialist Party, which has regained a degree of internal cohesion and initiative following two years of disarray. They also offered an opportunity to test the vitality of other political players, especially those of the far right National Front, which until recently had seemed moribund, of the Europe Ecologie green alliance, which last year came close to beating the Socialists into third position, and of MoDem, the centrist party that his leader Francois Bayrou wanted to transform into a genuine alternative to both main parties. ...Things went disastrously badly for UMP and almost as well for PS as Mme Aubry had wished. In the aftermath of the election the presidential majority stills only controls Alsace, while the Socialists have won everywhere else – except one region in which the sitting Socialist leader was re-elected, but after having been excluded by the Party, which vainly put up an alternative official candidate against him. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Local Government reform to be completed by mid-year Toward a pension show-down A crowded negotiation agenda. Is this the end of the Carbon Tax ? Companies and Sectors A start on universal high-speed broadband. Accor speeds up demerger. Road to electricity liberalisation paved with regulations. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published November 15 2009 20 pages In this issue The National Scene SARKOZY ON THE DEFENSIVE Neither economic growth nor public spending control will save President Sarkozy from tough public finance conditions during the second half of his Presidency. He may need to meet this challenge whilst facing the attacks of a revitalised opposition and mounting public disenchantment. New figures confirm that in 2009 the recession was less deep in France than in most other West European countries, and also less deep than expected only a few months ago. Quarterly figures showing a rise in GDP have now put an official end to the recession. From now on the economy should grow, and the rate of growth should be faster than expected; the Government has raised its 2010 forecast to 1%. The 2010 State and Social Security budgets, unveiled in October and currently debated in Parliament, confirm three central policies of earlier years, on State spending, employment and taxation. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Sunday trading. Unauthorised downloading Training State and Social Security Budgets Taxe Professionnelle Carbon Tax. Local Government Grenelle de l’ Environnement Post Office Companies and Sectors French banks rush for the exit. EPR problems complicate Areva’s financial equation. Incumbents determined to stop Free’s arrival. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published August 1 2009 20 pages In this issue The National Scene HUMDRUM REALITY BEHIND A STRIKING IMAGE There is a tempting picture of the current state of France and of the Sarkozy Presidency. Tempting partly because flattering to France, partly because it seems to provide an answers at times of international disorientation. The picture may be summarised as follows. France has been withstanding the international crisis better than other countries and this suggests that her economic management model, until recently reviled, should be reassessed as one that other Western countries should consider. Luckily, in President Sarkozy France has a leader that is best suited to promote this model with great effectiveness, and the current political circumstances happen to be ideal for Sarkozy. He has just won the European elections, he has seen the collapse of Trade Union protest, has a firm hold of Government policy, a solid support from an electorate that is willing to support reform, and he is determined to follow the policies that the country needs. By following his domestic agenda President Sarkozy and France are becoming the most clearly articulated answer to the current crisis – a model that other countries will be inclined to study closely and, in part, to follow. This picture has a base in some facts, but neglects many others and for this reason contains a profoundly mistaken view of current French policies and of their value. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Sarkozy sides with Balladur on Local Government reform. New fight over Hadopi project. Sunday trading heading for Constitutional Court scrutiny. European vote ushers in carbon tax project as environment bills advance. Government reaction restores bite to health reform. Assembly follows Government in adopting Union deal on training. Companies and Sectors The reform is in the Post. France Télécom slams down optical fibre decision. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published May 31 2009 20 pages In this issue The National Scene ADAPTATION RATHER THAN A NEW COURSE The June European elections will be a test of support not only for the Strasbourg Parliament parties, but also for majorities and oppositions in the different EU countries. In France too the vote will have a considerable domestic political significance. But it is more likely to affect the opposition than the majority and Government – whose policies are unlikely to be changed by the election outcome. No doubt, there will be a Government reshuffle, and in the process at least a few important cabinet positions will change. Because the Ministers in change of Justice and Agriculture are standing for the Strasbourg seat, and are sure of winning it, they will have to be replaced. The occasion may serve for a wider reshuffle and is likely to provide the opportunity of for a new episode of ouverture, President Sarkozy’s policy of offering Government jobs to politicians traditionally close to the opposition. In recent weeks there has been much talk of former Socialist Education Minister Allègre as a candidate to join the Government. However, Prime Minister Fillon will stay and the change in the ministerial team, no matter how wide, will be solely an effort to invigorate the executive and the majority. It will not signal a policy shift. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: No deal on National Assembly rule changes. Hadopi bill becomes law, in the end. Protests force Government retreats on university. Autumn schedule for local Government bill. Senate cuts health reform bill down to size. Negotiators agree to postpone complementary pension changes. Government gives up the idea of imposing training finance rules. Compromise on Sunday trading. Companies and Sectors BNP Paribas achieves Fortis acquisition. PSA: new management rather than new strategy. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published February 24 2009 20 pages In this issue The National Scene ADAPTATION RATHER THAN A NEW COURSE The programme with which Nicolas Sarkozy started his Presidency in the spring of 2008 could be summarised as a constant policy of reform aimed at producing an in-depth transformation of French economy and society, carried out in the context of an orthodox fiscal policy. If the reform programme represented a determination to move away from the ineffectiveness which had marked much of the Chirac presidency, the orthodox fiscal stance confirmed the approach which had been steadily followed in the previous legislature. State spending would be stable in real terms, the number of civil servants would be reduced by keeping hiring well below departures, and the deficit would be wiped out within a few years. True, one of the first economic decisions of the new President was to postpone the equilibrium target by two years, but that was meant as an adaptation of policy to a worsening economic environment, rather than as a change of direction. The present financial and economic crisis challenges both points. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Socialists seethe at Parliamentary rule change proposals. Balladur committee proposes local government reform Unedic agreement weathers wide Union disapproval. Government assessing training compromise National Assembly begins health reform debate. Unanimity for Grenelle environmental bill. Complementary pension talks confronted by gloomy forecasts. Companies and Sectors Brussels greenlights car support plan. State invites itself to bank merger. Alstom closer to realising Areva ambitions. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue published May 31 2008 20 pages In this issue The National Scene A BROAD FRONT Sarkozy’s problem is not that he faced such a tough challenge, but that he decided to deal with it with a wide range of comparatively modest interventions, rather than with some incisive but limited choices. Worse still, he initiated and announced innumerable other reforms which were not immediately needed. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: The background Constituional reform: a precarious balance. Majoirty obtains LME amendments. Pension contribution period set to rise. Industrial relations reform set to uproot 35 hour week. The next stage Companies and Sectors Size of CASA rights issue puzzles. EDF without rivals for British Energy Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue April 18 2008 26 pages In this issue The National Scene FROM STATESMAN TO FEVERED TINKERER As he nears completion of his first year in office, President Sarkozy must reckon with a big setback at the March local elections, a fall below 40% of his approval rate and open dissatisfaction within the Parliamentary majority. Yet, none of these is the real problem. What is truly worrying is that Sarkozy is paying such a high price without gaining anything in return. . France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: The story so far… Ministers downgrade ambitions on labour market. Socialists curb Sarkozy’s constitutional reform ambitions. Just a dose of Attali. Pensions: how to sweeten the pill. Breaking the mould on Union representativity. A full pipeline. Companies and Sectors Pitesti strike highlights Renault’s vulnerability. Much at stake with Livret A reform. US breakthrough fails to prevent EADS dive. Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 35. To download now click below Back to top   Issue November 11 2007 20 pages In this issue The National Scene OBLIGED TO WIN For president Sarkozy winning the battle for pension reform will be just an initial step of a long journey. But losing could easily compromise the entire Presidency. France's Agenda A survey of the context, background and current state of the main projects currently in Parliament and in the country: Budget debate reduced to side show Balladur committee rejects Balladur line on constitution Victory on special regimes vital for pension reform Competition, consumers and producers: striking a balance, making compromises Hesitations on Social VAT Social Security Budget gets lukewarm majority support A proliferation of negotiations Companies and Sectors Alcatel Lucent admits problems but confirms strategy New fears for EADS Suez seeks to preserve utility link Journalists strike against Arnault’s arrival as colleagues protest his departure Recent Data Five pages with the latest figures at the time of publication and the historical series for: GDP and components, industrial production, construction output, consumer purchases of manufactured goods, retail sales, inventory index, employment, unemployment, new vacancies, consumer prices, producer prices, imported raw material prices, monthly wages, unit labour costs, exports, imports, trade balance, the current account, the balance of State finances This issue is immediately availabe as a PDF download at the cost of £ 25. 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